April 25, 2026
The retail-used release valve is not an inference from three separate dashboards anymore. S&P Global Mobility’s own registration count shows the valve physically opening between January and February 2026.
S&P’s mid-March release put January 2026 U.S. used light-vehicle registrations at 2,778,089 units, an 8.8 percent drop from January 2025. Used cars fell 13.4 percent year-over-year. Used trucks fell 6.1 percent. That is a market not clearing. Six weeks later, the mid-April release reported February 2026 at 3,615,789 registrations, up 9.3 percent against February 2025. Used cars moved to plus 5.1 percent. Used trucks swung to plus 11.9 percent. Two-month YTD 2026 finished above 2025 at 6,417,918 against 6,353,543.
A roughly 18 percentage point swing in one calendar month, from an 8.8 percent deficit to a 9.3 percent surplus, is not noise. It is tax refund dollars arriving at the same moment new-vehicle affordability topped out.
U.S. used light-vehicle registrations, January-February 2026
| Group | Jan 2026 | Jan YoY | Feb 2026 | Feb YoY | 2-mo YTD 2026 | YTD YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total used | 2,778,089 | -8.8% | 3,615,789 | +9.3% | 6,417,918 | +1.0% |
| Cars | 967,459 | -13.4% | 1,310,750 | +5.1% | 2,286,106 | -3.3% |
| Trucks | 1,810,630 | -6.1% | 2,305,039 | +11.9% | 4,131,812 | +3.6% |
| GM | 580,529 | -8.5% | 771,436 | +8.6% | 1,358,098 | +1.0% |
| Ford Motor Co. | 423,323 | -9.9% | 552,525 | +7.9% | 979,474 | -0.2% |
| Stellantis | 334,717 | -9.8% | 447,483 | +7.6% | 785,555 | -0.2% |
| Toyota Motor N.A. | 359,268 | -8.7% | 443,787 | +10.4% | 805,264 | +1.2% |
| American Honda | 253,837 | -10.6% | 334,376 | +8.6% | 590,495 | -0.2% |
| Hyundai-Kia | 194,922 | -5.8% | 261,088 | +14.2% | 457,696 | +5.1% |
| Nissan Group | 191,504 | -12.5% | 260,805 | +7.2% | 453,635 | -1.9% |
| VW Group | 106,068 | -5.7% | 131,693 | +12.1% | 238,559 | +3.8% |
The segment split confirms the driver. Hyundai-Kia used registrations ran 14.2 percent above February 2025, Toyota Motor N.A. trucks 13.0 percent, GM trucks 11.8 percent, VW Group 12.1 percent. The used truck category cleared 2,305,039 registrations against 2,060,018 a year earlier. Those are the vehicles a refund-anchored household picks when new-lot ATP sits near $49,275 and the walk-in budget sits near $40,000. Catalyst IQ’s Q1 2026 release reported non-luxury used daily movement at 41,432 units per day, up 11.2 percent from Q4. The S&P registration surge is that story viewed from the DMV instead of the dealer CRM.
For dealer principals, February’s rebound was broad rather than brand-specific. The eight largest OEM groups by used-registration volume each posted year-over-year gains in the month, ranging from Nissan Group’s 7.2 percent to Hyundai-Kia’s 14.2 percent. Q2 refund traffic will not concentrate on one make’s inventory. Every sourcing lane, auction, trade-in, off-lease, matters.
March did not reverse the move. Cox Automotive’s Q1 2026 MUVVI release put the wholesale index at 215.3 in March, up 6.2 percent year-over-year and the highest reading since summer 2023. Manheim sales conversion hit 68.2 percent in the most recent measure, 4.6 percentage points above the three-year March average. Cox reports retail used sales running roughly 2 percent above 2025 across Q1, with chief economist Jeremy Robb attributing the move to higher-than-average tax refunds activating pent-up demand. Wholesale, dealer CRM, and DMV registrations converge on the same outcome.
CollisionWeek flagged Cox vAuto retail used inventory at a record low since the 2019 dataset began, which governs how long the surge can run. The variable to watch is the next S&P registration release in mid-May, which will show whether the truck-segment lead held through March.
The broader read is the one four-dollar gas put on the table in early April. Used is the only part of the retail stack where consumers have any real price flexibility in 2026. The S&P swing and the Q1 MUVVI together confirm they are using it.
