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Daily Tracker

Oil Crisis Monitor

Updated: Oct 25, 2026 — 4:17 AM MT

Strait of Hormuz

238

Days

Day 238 — Aden airport hit; Riyadh airport reopens. The strait remains closed.

Day 238: Houthi missiles hit Aden's airport and coastguard headquarters; Saudi defences intercept missiles aimed toward Mecca, Medina and Riyadh.

Brent Crude

+59.6% since closure

$116.72

/bbl

Today: +$3.55 (+3.1%)

U.S. Gas Avg

+43.0% since closure

$4.29

/gal

Today: −$0.01

WTI Crude

+49.7% since closure

$103.27

/bbl

Today: +$3.80 (+3.8%)

IMF PortWatch weekly Hormuz transit update

2 days

Oct 27

USMCA Tariffs

25% IEEPA + 232 duties
IN EFFECT

207

Day

2026 SAAR Forecast

16.1–16.8M

▼ 16.8M
prev. forecast

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Public agencies & commodity exchanges

Risograph-style illustration of a dealer's front line in an autumn valley: a salesperson shows a used Subaru Outback to a retired couple while a technician rolls tyres toward the service door and a loan officer works in an upstairs window.

Lithia’s Adjusted Profit Fell 5% as Fewer Shares Lifted EPS 9%

Lithia & Driveway reported on October 21 that its adjusted net income fell 5% to $229.3 million in the third quarter of 2026, while adjusted earnings per share rose 9% to $10.34 on a diluted share count 12.7% smaller than a year earlier. Same-store gross profit fell and finance and insurance profit per car dropped $85, while used-car margins, service and Lithia's own lender did better.

GM Lifts Its Cash Outlook and Narrows Its Profit Range

General Motors raised its 2026 adjusted automotive free cash flow guidance by $1.5 billion at the midpoint on October 20, 2026, to $11.5 billion to $12.5 billion, while keeping the middle of its EBIT-adjusted forecast at $15 billion. Much of the extra cash comes from a smaller and later tariff bill, and GM announced a $20 billion buyback as its full-size pickup changeover begins.

Penske Automotive’s Owners Buy the Rest at $212, 15 Times Earnings

On October 15, 2026, Penske Corporation and Mitsui & Co., which with their affiliates own about 72.6% of Penske Automotive Group, agreed to buy the rest of its shares for $212 each in cash, at an enterprise value of about $16.3 billion. The price is 8.6% above the last close before their July bid and about 15 times the group's 2025 earnings per share of $14.13, which fell again in the first half of 2026. The deal closes only if a majority of the votes cast by disinterested shareholders approves it.

Toyota RAV4 Sales September 2026: Month Down 6.6%, Year Down 29.2%

Toyota sold 34,192 RAV4s in the United States in September 2026, 6.6% fewer than in September 2025, and 253,664 through nine months against 358,134 a year earlier. Toyota attributes the fall to the changeover to the new RAV4, which it now sells only as a hybrid or a plug-in hybrid.

China Car Sales September 2026: Retail Down 28%

China's passenger car retail sales fell 28% year over year to 1.618 million in September 2026, on final figures the China Passenger Car Association released October 12. New energy vehicles fell 16.7% to 1.084 million yet took a record 67.0% of retail, while passenger car exports rose 73.7% to 917,000.

F-Series Sales September 2026: Up 2.4%, Year Still Down 9.5%

Ford sold 67,448 F-Series trucks in the United States in September 2026, 2.4% more than in September 2025, while nine-month sales stand at 561,508, down 9.5%. Ford says the F-Series had the lowest incentive spending in its segment in the third quarter, and that its lead over the Chevrolet Silverado has grown to more than 140,000 trucks.

Mexico Car Sales September 2026: Nine Months Top 2016

Mexico's new light-vehicle sales reached 1,143,989 from January through September 2026, up 5.3% and 24,808 more than the same nine months of 2016, the most for those months since at least 2005. September alone rose 10.3% to 129,274.

Kia Sales 2026: Record September, Record Nine Months

Kia sold 77,009 vehicles in the United States in September 2026, 17.6% more than in September 2025 and its best September since the monthly record begins in 2005. Through nine months Kia stands at 667,386, up 4.9% and the highest January-to-September total it has recorded. 184,770 in October through December would make 2026 a fourth consecutive record year.

Honda Sales 2026: Best Nine Months Since 2021

Honda sold 111,661 vehicles in the United States in September 2026, 17.1% more than in September 2025. Through nine months the Honda brand stands at 1,045,593, up 4.7% and its highest January-to-September since 2021, which is 164,392 more than it sold in the whole of 2022. Acura, counted separately, has sold 103,667 this year.

Unifor Sets a Stellantis Strike Vote for October 17-18

Unifor said on October 6, 2026 that it will hold strike authorization votes at Stellantis Canada on October 17 and 18, with results announced October 19, because talks remain at an impasse over the Brampton Assembly Plant. A yes vote gives the bargaining committee the power to call a strike. Under Ontario law a legal strike can begin only on the 17th day after the labour minister releases a no-board notice, and none has been announced.

NHTSA Cuts the 2031 Fuel-Economy Target to 34.9 MPG

NHTSA's final fuel-economy rule, published in the Federal Register on September 30, 2026, sets requirements the agency estimates at roughly 34.9 mpg across the industry fleet in model year 2031, against about 49.3 mpg under the standards it replaces. Credits earned from model year 2028 can no longer be traded between automakers, and from model year 2030 three rows of seats no longer qualify a vehicle as a light truck.

Ram Sales 2026: 134,072 in the Third Quarter, Its Best Since 2023

Ram sold 134,072 vehicles in the United States in the third quarter of 2026, 29% more than the 103,717 of a year earlier by Stellantis' count and the brand's best quarter since the fourth quarter of 2023. Through September Ram stands at 369,379, up 20%, and any fourth quarter above 62,291 makes 2026 its first up year since 2021.

Buick Sales 2026: 43,990 in the Third Quarter, Its First Gain in Five Quarters

Buick sold 43,990 vehicles in the United States in the third quarter of 2026, 7.9% more than the 40,780 of a year earlier in GM's deliveries table and the brand's first year-over-year quarterly gain since the second quarter of 2025, against a third quarter of 2025 that had fallen 14.0%. The Korea-built Envista led with 18,094, up 18.4%, while the China-built Envision fell 4.6%; through September Buick stands at 135,811, down 13.4%.

Toyota Tacoma Sales 2026: 214,875 Through September, Its Best Nine Months

Toyota sold 214,875 Tacomas in the United States from January to September 2026, 5.1% more than in the same months of 2025 and the most for the first nine months of any year since the series began in 2005, after September's 21,476 (up 5.3%) ended a two-month run of declines. Passing 2025's 274,638, the truck's best year, takes 59,763 in the fourth quarter; the fourth quarter of 2025 delivered 70,174.

Toyota Prius Sales 2026: Four Straight Quarters Near 9,700

Toyota sold 9,705 Prius in the United States in the third quarter of 2026, 25.0% fewer than a year earlier, and 29,223 from January to September, down 37.5%. Sales have run between 9,705 and 9,781 a quarter since October 2025, so most of the year's decline is against a strong first half of 2025. Inside the line, Toyota's figures show the plug-in hybrid level with 2025 and the hybrid down by half.

Chinese Brands Took 23% of Britain’s September and 6% of Germany’s

Chinese brands registered 81,776 new cars in the United Kingdom in September 2026, 23.3% of a 350,536-car market that grew 12.0%, up from 12.4% a year earlier, according to SMMT figures published October 5. In Germany, KBA's figures the same day put Chinese brands at 15,784, or 6.1% of 256,774.

Canada Auto Sales September 2026: Mazda Down 18.9%

Mazda sold 6,454 vehicles in Canada in September 2026, down 18.9% from 7,960, in the same month its US sales rose 31.9% to a September record of 34,519. DesRosiers Automotive Consultants estimated the whole Canadian market up 3.4% for September. Lexus had its best Canadian September, 3,341, up 31.6%.

California Puts a Clock on Robotaxis That Block Fire Crews

California enacted SB 1246 on September 30, 2026: from July 1, 2028, a robotaxi operator faces local penalties when one of its cars obstructs an emergency operation for more than 30 minutes, and must give first responders an on-site contact, a local incident technician, for crashes and obstructions. Until that date, the state's rule for emergencies is the one already in force: answer a first responder's call within 30 seconds.

CarMax Gave Up $111 a Car and Sold 13.8% More

On September 29, 2026, CarMax reported 227,391 retail used-car sales for its fiscal second quarter, the three months to August 31, up 13.8% from a year earlier, after cutting gross profit per retail car by $111 to $2,105. Diluted earnings per share rose to $1.16 from $0.64, and more of the profit gain came from CarMax Auto Finance, extended service plans and the service shop than from the cars themselves.

Geely Holding Agrees to Take 30% of NIO’s Battery-Swap Network

On September 27, 2026, NIO signed definitive agreements under which a Zhejiang Geely Holding Group subsidiary will own 30.0% of NIO Power, NIO's battery-swap and charging unit, at a post-money valuation of about RMB 16 billion. Geely pays with all of its Yiyi Power swap business plus RMB 640 million in cash, and the deal still needs regulatory clearance.

VW Books a €6 Billion Porsche Charge Before Its Plants

Volkswagen AG cut its 2026 operating return on sales forecast to "up to 1 percent" from 4.0 to 5.5 percent on September 18, 2026, on about €10 billion of special items, of which about €6 billion is a non-cash impairment of goodwill allocated to the Porsche segment. In the US, Porsche's first-half deliveries fell 14.7% and Audi's sales 17.1%.

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