July 13, 2026
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index closed the second quarter at 212.9 in June, up 2.1 percent year over year and 0.1 percent against May, per Cox Automotive. Cox characterized the quarter as a strong start that normalized, with the spring peak in March and June sitting about a point below it. Auction conversion ran 57.5 percent, 2.6 points above the three-year average, and the year-end forecast of roughly 2 percent growth was left alone.
The used EV index rose 13.7 percent year over year and 3.2 percent against May, per Cox’s mid-June read, which puts it more than eleven points clear of the market it sits inside. Cox names two reasons: expanding availability and elevated fuel costs. The second one is doing the work.
The national average pump price sat at $3.876 on July 12, roughly 88 cents above the pre-war baseline near $2.98, after a 43-day slide that ended on July 9 when the ceasefire collapsed. Elevated fuel costs, in July 2026, means the Iran conflict. A shopper paying a premium for a three-year-old IONIQ 5 to escape that pump is taking a position on Brent crude, whether or not the transaction feels like one. Oman’s two-corridor proposal for the Strait of Hormuz is sitting unanswered on two desks. If it is accepted and crude falls under $74, the fuel-cost premium supporting used EV values goes with it.
New EV sales fell roughly 13 percent year over year in June, with the $7,500 federal purchase credit already eliminated, while used EV values rose 13.7 percent, and that split is the part worth staring at. That is not two different markets. It is the same household running two different calculations, one of which needs a subsidy to pencil and one of which needs expensive gasoline.
A used Model Y acquired at today’s wholesale number carries a fuel-price assumption baked into the acquisition, and the residual risk on that unit is not the usual mileage-and-condition question. It is a diplomatic one. Cox’s decision to hold its year-end forecast at roughly 2 percent growth is a bet that the total market normalizes on schedule, and the total market is not where the exposure sits.
GCBC’s April piece on the used EV surge put the thesis as fuel prices plus an off-lease flood, with fourteen bids per vehicle on wholesale platforms. A full quarter of Cox data now confirms it. It also prices the risk, which the original piece could not: the strongest asset class in the used market this year is levered to a war ending.
