September 25, 2026
What Volkswagen changed on September 18
On September 18, Volkswagen AG’s ad hoc release cut its 2026 operating return on sales forecast to “up to 1 percent.” The previous range was 4.0 to 5.5 percent, and the 2025 result was 2.8 percent. Revenue guidance barely moved, to about €315 billion against €321.9 billion in 2025, so the cut sits almost entirely in special items: about €10 billion for the year, of which €0.9 billion was already booked in the first half. Adjusted for them, the margin would be about 4 percent.
Porsche AG supplied the largest item. Volkswagen said Porsche informed it of “the expected development of its key financial data” in updated long-term planning, including Porsche’s medium-term margin corridor of 10 to 15 percent. The resulting impairment test produces a non-cash charge of about €6 billion on goodwill allocated to the Porsche segment, recognized in the third quarter.
About €2 billion more lands in the second half from three sources: wider early-retirement schemes, the planned sale of Volkswagen Osnabrück GmbH, and non-cash impairments of assets at fully consolidated companies in China. The Osnabrück sale is still only planned. On September 7, Volkswagen, the State of Lower Saxony and the investor Aurelius Capital agreed on a possible sale that would turn the site over to air-defence systems and components, with Rafael Advanced Defense Systems as the anchor project; completion remains subject to final agreements, board approvals and regulatory reviews. Volkswagen gave two operating reasons for the cut, “a further deterioration in the market environment, especially in China,” and “an accelerated shift in demand in favor of battery-electric vehicles,” which it said leave the Audi and Volkswagen Passenger Cars brands short of original expectations.
The balance sheet moved before the plants
On September 3, Volkswagen’s supervisory board voted unanimously for Future Plan 2030, which set a headcount number and deferred decisions on four German plants to a concept due in June 2027. GCBC’s August 29 preview gave that vote’s date as September 4; it took place September 3. Fifteen days after the vote, the largest single cost of the restructuring year is a revaluation of Porsche, and the plant decisions still carry a 2027 date.
Where the US fits
In the first half of 2026, Audi sold 67,916 vehicles in the US, down 17.1% from 81,957, the steepest fall among the group’s three US volume brands. The Volkswagen brand rose 2.3% to 162,962, on a second quarter up 24.9% to 89,159.
Porsche delivered 33,012 vehicles in the US in the first half, down 14.7% from 38,696, according to Porsche Cars North America. The mix moved sharply by model line.
| Porsche model line, US | H1 2026 | H1 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macan | 11,552 | 14,563 | -20.7% |
| Cayenne | 9,785 | 10,327 | -5.2% |
| 911 | 8,478 | 5,424 | +56.3% |
| Panamera | 1,874 | 2,620 | -28.5% |
| Taycan | 1,079 | 2,083 | -48.2% |
| 718 | 244 | 3,679 | -93.4% |
| Total | 33,012 | 38,696 | -14.7% |
Model lines as reported by Porsche Cars North America; one 2025 month is incomplete in the monthly series, so the 2025 total is Porsche’s.
The 911 carried the half. It gained 3,054 units while the Macan, Taycan and 718 together lost 7,450, the 718 because production of the car has ended.
What comes next, and when
Cox Automotive forecasts VW Group US sales of 143,112 in the third quarter, down 9.5% from 158,141, with a year-to-date share of 3.4% against 3.6% a year earlier. VW Group’s US brands report the quarter on or about October 1.
October 29 is the next dated checkpoint. Volkswagen publishes its nine-month interim report that day, the first statement to carry the Porsche impairment through the income statement, and the dividend proposal for 2026 waits for a board decision at the beginning of 2027.
