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GCBC Quick Hits — March 27, 2026

March 27, 2026

The U.S. Makes Cars at Half the Rate Its Economy Predicts

The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation published a competitiveness assessment showing the U.S. auto manufacturing location quotient fell from 0.92 in 1995 to 0.54 in 2022. The country produces vehicles at barely half the rate its economic size would predict. The Big Three’s domestic market share fell from 92% in 1965 to 38% in 2024. The accumulated U.S. passenger vehicle trade deficit stands at $425 billion. This is the single most important data point framing every tariff, reshoring, and manufacturing policy debate happening right now. For ongoing coverage of how tariffs and trade policy are reshaping the industry, see our Oil Crisis Tracker.

Source: ITIF


Toyota Commits $1 Billion to Kentucky and Indiana Plants

Toyota is putting $800 million into Georgetown, Kentucky and $200 million into Princeton, Indiana as part of a broader $10 billion multiyear U.S. manufacturing commitment. Georgetown will produce the Highlander EV starting late 2026, making it the plant’s second battery electric vehicle. The investment arrives as automakers collectively absorb $35.4 billion in cumulative tariff costs, with Toyota alone accounting for $9.1 billion in its fiscal year ending March 31.

Sources: CNBC, Toyota Newsroom


Section 232 Auto Parts Tariff Scope Keeps Expanding

The Commerce Department opened a new quarterly submission window for Section 232 auto parts inclusions, with filings accepted April 1 through 14. The current scope covers engines and engine parts, transmissions and powertrain parts, and electrical components. Each quarterly window (January, April, July, October) adds newly approved parts categories to the 25% tariff regime. This is the slow ratchet mechanism expanding the scope of auto parts tariffs even when headline rates do not change.

Sources: Federal Register, White & Case


The Subprime Auto Loan Spread Hits 12 Percentage Points

Auto loan rates are stable with the Fed holding at 3.50% to 3.75%. Super prime borrowers see averages around 4.66% APR. Deep subprime borrowers pay 16.01%. That gap, nearly 12 percentage points, signals a market that has split in two. Best available new car rates start at 3.39%, used from 4.34%. Combined with record vehicle prices and tariff pass-through, the affordability math keeps getting worse for anyone without pristine credit.

Sources: U.S. News, Bankrate


Tesla and SpaceX Plan a $25 Billion Chip Factory. 80% of Output Goes to Space.

Tesla and SpaceX unveiled plans for “Terafab,” a $25 billion semiconductor fabrication facility targeting 2nm process technology. Initial capacity: 100,000 wafer starts per month, scaling to 1 million (roughly 70% of TSMC’s global output). The auto angle is narrow. Eighty percent of output is earmarked for orbital AI satellites, with only 20% going to ground-based applications including Tesla vehicles. Vertical integration into chips would give Tesla semiconductor independence no other automaker has, but the 80/20 split makes clear this is primarily a space and AI play.

Sources: Electrek, TechCrunch


Ford Takes Over as Baseball’s Car Company

Ford signed a five-year deal as MLB’s official automotive partner, replacing Chevrolet’s two-decade sponsorship. The deal covers MLB, Minor League Baseball, and Little League International. Ford gets presenting sponsorship of July 4th, All-Star Week, and the postseason. The community tie-in: Ford is funding grants to Little Leagues near manufacturing plants in Kansas City, Buffalo, and Detroit. GM is pulling back from sports sponsorships to fund EV and AV development. Ford is doubling down on mass-market visibility while its stock trades near $9.50 and recalls pile up.

Sources: Automotive News, Detroit News

Daily Tracker
Oil Crisis Monitor
Updated: Sep 26, 2026 — 4:45 AM MT
Strait of Hormuz
209
Days
Day 209 — Saudi authorities reported intercepting drones aimed at Riyadh and missiles aimed at Khamis Mushait (via CBS News). The IOM says more than 130,000 people have fled fighting in Yemen. The strait remains closed; Kpler recorded 33.7M barrels through it in the week from Sep 20.
Day 209: Saudi Arabia reports new drone and missile interceptions over Riyadh and Khamis Mushait; IOM counts 130,000+ displaced in Yemen.
Brent Crude
+42.6% since closure
$104.32
/bbl
Today: −$2.28 (−2.1%)
U.S. Gas Avg
+49.7% since closure
$4.49
/gal
Today: +$0.01
WTI Crude
+33.9% since closure
$92.41
/bbl
Today: −$2.20 (−2.3%)
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IMF PortWatch weekly chokepoint refresh — first data past Sep 20
3 days
Sep 29
USMCA Tariffs
25% IEEPA + 232 duties
IN EFFECT
178
Day
2026 SAAR Forecast
16.1–16.8M
▼ 16.4M
prev. forecast
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