October 20, 2026
General Motors expects $1.5 billion more cash this year than it did in July, and the same profit. Its third-quarter release raised the free cash flow forecast by that much at the midpoint and left the middle of the EBIT-adjusted range at $15 billion, where July’s report had put it.
Paul Jacobson, the chief financial officer, gave analysts three reasons for the raise on the call: operations, capital spending below plan and the timing of tariff payments. The earnings deck puts this year’s tariff bill at the low end of the range GM set in July, and Jacobson said some of this year’s upside, tariff refunds among it, would not repeat in 2027. Read on GM’s own terms, the raise reflects a better calendar more than a better business.
The same release announced a new $20 billion buyback authorization, with no expiration date, after the $6 billion January program finished. GM is pointing the extra cash at shareholders before its other bills are settled. The share count is already down to 849 million from 904 million at the end of 2025, which is why the per-share forecast edged up while the profit midpoint stood still.
Two costs still sit ahead of the cash target. About $1 billion of the cash owed for the EV pullback falls due in the fourth quarter, with the rest in 2027, and the same quarter is when the full-size pickup changeover starts to cost GM trucks.
| 2026 guidance | July | October 20 |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted automotive free cash flow | $9.5B to $11.5B | $11.5B to $12.5B |
| EBIT-adjusted | $14.0B to $16.0B | $14.5B to $15.5B |
| EPS-diluted-adjusted | $12.00 to $14.00 | $12.75 to $13.75 |
| Net income attributable to stockholders | $8.4B to $9.8B | $8.9B to $9.5B |
| Automotive operating cash flow | $15.4B to $19.4B | $17.3B to $20.3B |
Fewer sales, a fatter margin
North America earned $3.6 billion of GM’s $4.1 billion in third-quarter EBIT-adjusted profit. Its margin rose to 8.7%, from 6.2% a year earlier, and the deck credits lower warranty costs, EV inventory adjustments and a richer mix of full-size pickups. GM International earned $28 million.
US sales fell to 671,000 from 710,000 in the quarter, the release shows. Incentives averaged 4.8% of the sticker price against 6.6% for the industry, a gap the deck calls “pricing discipline.” GM also absorbed commodity costs of about $2 billion this year, memory chips included, the top of its earlier range.
The changeover dealers will feel first
Silao, in Mexico, started building the new Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra in mid-October. Fort Wayne, in Indiana, stops for four weeks from mid-December and restarts in January, Jacobson told analysts, and he put the fourth-quarter cost at about 35,000 fewer full-size pickups than a year earlier. Mary Barra, the chief executive, said the first new trucks reach dealers later this year.
GM wants dealer stock inside 50 to 60 days of supply by year end, and clearing the outgoing trucks already brought “slight pricing softness” in the third quarter, the deck says. For a store that lives on the Silverado, that means a thin supply of old trucks, lightly discounted, while the new one arrives in small numbers. Chevrolet and GMC, which sold 436,771 and 157,103 vehicles in the US in the third quarter, carry most of that transition.
What to watch
Early January brings GM’s fourth-quarter US deliveries, the first count of what the changeover cost in trucks. The fourth-quarter report follows in late January and shows whether GM paid the roughly $1 billion of EV costs it scheduled and still landed inside its cash range. A figure below $11.5 billion, after a raise and a $20 billion buyback, would be the surprise.
