November 12, 2026
| Nissan, first half to second half (¥ billion) | Operating profit |
|---|---|
| First half, actual | 80 |
| One-time US tariff gain, gone | -60 |
| Second-quarter items, boost to third quarter | +30 |
| Exchange rates | -20 |
| Raw materials | -25 |
| Sales performance and seasonality | +105 |
| Manufacturing, cost and other | +10 |
| Second half, outlook | 120 |
Source: Nissan’s first-half results presentation, November 11, 2026, page 15.
Less volume, the same profit target
On November 11, Nissan cut its global sales outlook for this fiscal year to about 3 million vehicles, from 3.15 million, and put the cut down to China. Its first-half release kept the full-year operating profit target at ¥200 billion all the same.
So the second half has to earn ¥120 billion, half as much again as the first, by GCBC’s arithmetic, and the quarter just ended barely broke even. Nissan’s own profit walk puts most of the climb on selling more cars at better prices. Yet it raised its outlook for North America and Japan only slightly, and its total US sales barely grew in the September quarter.
China takes the volume
In China, Nissan now expects to sell 370,000 to 400,000 cars in calendar 2026, according to its results presentation. Its previous outlook was 580,000, and it sold 653,000 there in 2025.
Through September it had sold 313,000 in China, against 457,000 a year earlier. The new range leaves 57,000 to 87,000 for October to December, by GCBC’s arithmetic. On the same arithmetic, Nissan sold 196,000 cars in China in those three months of 2025.
Buyers in China are moving to new-energy vehicles faster than Nissan expected, it says, while demand weakens and competition gets harder. Nissan is adjusting petrol-car production and dealer stock there, speeding up its N-series new-energy models and expanding exports.
Outside China, Nissan raised its outlook by 30,000 vehicles, to 2.6 million. North America takes 25,000 of the increase and Japan the other 5,000.
A first half helped by a one-off
Operating profit for the six months to September came to ¥80.0 billion, against a loss of ¥27.7 billion a year earlier. That figure includes a one-time US tariff gain of ¥61.1 billion, which the presentation lists in its one-time column next to a ¥28.9 billion change in warranty estimates.
The September quarter carried little of the half. Operating profit fell to ¥2.1 billion, from ¥51.5 billion a year earlier. Raw materials cost ¥46.4 billion more than in the same quarter of 2025, and a year-earlier benefit from lower US emissions-related expenses did not recur, which the release names as the main reason for the fall.
The second half has to do the work
Nissan’s walk from the first half to the second, on page 15 of the presentation, starts by taking the one-time tariff gain out. Exchange rates and raw materials cost another ¥45 billion between them. Against that, Nissan counts ¥105 billion from sales performance and seasonality, a single bar in the deck that it does not split. It adds ¥30 billion from second-quarter items that the deck marks as a boost to the third quarter.
That bar in Nissan’s walk is the weak point. Nissan reports its Chinese joint venture by the equity method, so the venture’s results sit outside the revenue and operating profit the target is set on. The volume behind the bar has to come mostly from outside China. There, second-half sales have to reach about 1.43 million, by GCBC’s arithmetic, about 10% more than in the same half a year earlier. The first half fell 2.3% outside China. The release names higher volumes, new launches and a richer mix as the main drivers.
The US slowed in the September quarter
The US is the biggest market in that plan. Nissan’s US sales rose 5.5% in the half, to 469,000, helped by demand for the US-built Rogue, Frontier and Pathfinder.
September-quarter totals tell a flatter story. Nissan Group sold 226,474 Nissan and Infiniti vehicles in the US in the September quarter, 1.4% more than a year earlier, according to its third-quarter US sales release. Retail sales rose 7.8% over the same months. The difference is fleet: Nissan cut its rental sales by 45% in the quarter and says dealer profitability rose.
In the US, Nissan says pricing and richer grades are supporting the quality of its revenue. Better prices do not add units, and the second-half walk needs more units too. The one new US model Nissan names for the half is the Rogue Hybrid, which it said in October would start reaching dealers in November; GCBC looked at the Rogue’s e-Power hybrid in March.
What to watch
Nissan’s US sales for October to December are the first test. A total that stays near flat would leave the ¥105 billion leaning on price and mix alone. The new business plan Nissan has promised for February 2027 is where it will have to say what it does about China. The surprise would be a second cut to the sales range with the ¥200 billion left untouched again.
