November 10, 2026
| Lucid, three months to | Sept 30, 2026 | June 30, 2026 | Sept 30, 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $350 million | $405 million | $337 million |
| Gross profit | -$258 million | -$427 million | -$334 million |
| Adjusted EBITDA | -$726 million | -$901 million | -$718 million |
| Operating cash flow | -$753 million | -$1,222 million | -$757 million |
| Capital spending | $287 million | $254 million | $199 million |
| Free cash flow | -$1,040 million | -$1,476 million | -$955 million |
Source: Lucid’s third- and second-quarter 2026 releases. Gross profit is revenue less cost of revenue, GCBC’s arithmetic. Free cash flow is Lucid’s non-GAAP measure: operating cash flow less capital spending.
The backer lent more than Lucid burned
Lucid burned 30% less cash last quarter than in the one before. Its free cash outflow fell to $1.04 billion from $1.48 billion, according to Lucid’s third-quarter results release. Over the same months, its controlling shareholder lent it more than that. Ayar, an affiliate of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, advanced $1.2 billion in July and August under a delayed-draw loan, the company’s quarterly report to regulators shows.
The cut is the first sign that the cash plan GCBC weighed in August is doing what it promised. It has not made Lucid any less dependent on Saudi money. Revenue grew only because the Saudi government bought more cars, the adjusted EBITDA loss is where it was a year ago, and the runway Lucid now quotes rests on new credit from the same shareholder.
Where the cut came from
Operating cash outflow fell by about $470 million from the second quarter, and working capital did most of that work. Inventory, which soaked up $846 million of cash in the first half by GCBC’s arithmetic, released $77 million in the third quarter. Lucid’s finance chief credits actions to “align our manufacturing capacity with demand, reduce inventory and lower operating expenses.”
The $1.4 billion cash-flow plan has delivered $0.8 billion this year, Lucid says, and remains on track for the rest. The plan, as set out in the second-quarter results release, leaned on inventory for the largest part. Neither the third-quarter release nor the quarterly report splits the $0.8 billion. There is stock left to sell down, since inventory stood at $1.22 billion at the end of September, above where it began the year, but cash from inventory comes once.
Capital spending went the other way, rising to $287 million from $199 million a year earlier. That is why the quarter’s outflow was still 9% larger than in the third quarter of 2025. Lucid expects about $1.1 billion of capital spending for the full year.
Saudi Arabia supplied the revenue growth
Revenue rose 4% from a year earlier, against a US electric-vehicle market Lucid says fell 41%. The growth came from one customer. Lucid’s US business shrank, with US revenue down 10%, while vehicle sales to the Saudi government rose to $79 million from $34 million. The government is a related party of the PIF and signed a ten-year purchase agreement with Lucid in 2023. Without those purchases, revenue would have fallen.
Cost of revenue still ran at about 1.7 times revenue, so the cars cost more to build and deliver than they sell for. The gross loss did narrow from the second quarter, helped by smaller write-downs of inventory and purchase commitments: $94 million, down from $299 million.
The runway is a Saudi credit line
Liquidity ended September at $2.0 billion, a third less than at the end of June. On November 5 Lucid amended the Ayar loan to add $1.75 billion of undrawn commitments, taking the facility to about $4.23 billion. It had already drawn another $400 million in October.
Ayar’s loans carried a weighted average rate of 9.59% at the end of September. In October Lucid chose to add $34.4 million of accrued interest to the loan balance rather than pay it in cash. Ayar also holds three series of convertible preferred stock that rank ahead of common shareholders, with a liquidation preference of about $3.2 billion. Lucid’s stockholders’ equity is now below zero.
The new total of $3.75 billion funds Lucid into the fourth quarter of 2027, the company says, “bridging the period through Midsize start of production,” still planned for the second half of that year. At the third quarter’s pace, GCBC’s arithmetic gives that sum about three and a half quarters. Reaching the fourth quarter of 2027 needs the outflow to keep falling, to an average below about $940 million a quarter. Rivian’s runway, measured last month, rests on share sales, a federal loan and Volkswagen; Lucid’s rests on one shareholder.
What to watch
The first test is the first quarter of 2027, when Lucid says it will give the Midsize car’s reveal and production dates, with its mid-term plan also due early in the year, around the time its Saudi plant, AMP-2, is due to be inaugurated. A Midsize start that slips past 2027 would outrun the runway Lucid has just bought. The cash test comes with fourth-quarter results: whether the plan’s last $0.6 billion arrives, and whether the quarterly outflow drops below about $940 million.
