October 4, 2026
What the rule sets
On September 30, the Federal Register published NHTSA’s final rule resetting Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards for model years 2022 through 2031, effective November 30. The agency estimates the requirements average roughly 34.9 mpg across the passenger-car and light-truck fleet in model year 2031, made up of about 40.2 mpg for passenger cars and 26.4 mpg for light trucks. Under the No-Action Alternative, the standards issued in 2024, NHTSA puts the same 2031 figure at about 49.3 mpg.
49.3 mpg is the agency’s re-estimate of the old standards. When NHTSA finalized the 2027 to 2031 standards in June 2024, its own estimate for 2031 was roughly 50.4 mpg. The reset therefore takes 14.4 mpg off the 2031 requirement against NHTSA’s current baseline, and 15.5 mpg against the figure it published two years ago.
0.90% a year is the new rate of increase for passenger cars, and 0.51% a year for light trucks, through model year 2029, then 1% a year for both through 2031; the 2024 rule set 2% a year for cars from 2027 and for trucks from 2029.
The reset reaches back to 2022
Model years 2022 through 2026 are covered too. NHTSA writes that the standards it set for 2022 to 2026 and for 2027 to 2031 “failed to satisfy substantive statutory requirements,” and it finalizes amended standards back to 2022. The agency also says it set every level without considering the fuel economy of electric vehicles or the electric operation of plug-in hybrids.
Public Law 119-21 had already set the civil penalty for a CAFE shortfall at $0 from model year 2022, and the rule writes that figure into NHTSA’s regulations. An automaker below its target owes no civil penalty under the program, so the levels describe what a compliant fleet reaches rather than a bill for missing them. NHTSA estimates the rule lowers average per-vehicle cost by $1,289 in model year 2031 against the No-Action Alternative, and that gasoline consumption runs 4.6% higher through calendar 2050 than that baseline would produce.
Credits stop moving between companies
Model year 2028 is the cutoff. Credits a manufacturer earns from 2028 on can no longer be sold to another manufacturer; credits earned through model year 2027 stay tradable and usable for up to five model years after they were earned. From the same year, NHTSA drops air-conditioning efficiency and off-cycle adjustments from the analysis it uses to set the standards.
Three rows no longer make a truck
68% of the light-duty fleet meets the current regulatory definition of a light truck, NHTSA says, and it argues most of those vehicles, all-wheel-drive crossovers and three-row models among them, are built to carry people. From model year 2030, the agency deletes the criterion that classed a vehicle with a third row of seats folding to a flat cargo floor as a non-passenger automobile. NHTSA says it intends that a light truck will “exhibit true non-passenger capabilities that display relevant off-highway vehicle attributes such as approach angle and running clearance or include design features that provide higher payload and towing abilities.”
The Kia Telluride, the Toyota Grand Highlander and the Chevrolet Traverse are the kind of vehicle the change reaches. All three carry a third row; from model year 2030 none can rely on its seat count for truck status, and each model’s class will turn on the clearance tests and a new light-duty work factor, a payload-and-towing measure the rule adds to the truck criteria. A vehicle moved across the line is averaged into the passenger-car fleet, whose 2031 requirement NHTSA puts at about 40.2 mpg against 26.4 mpg for light trucks. With the civil penalty at $0, that raises the target the vehicle counts against but carries no fine for missing it.
What to watch
November 30 is the date the rule takes effect, and a petition for review in a federal appeals court before or after it is the first event that could change the schedule. Model year 2030 begins for many nameplates in calendar 2029, so the classification change lands on three-row crossovers already in development, including many of the nameplates in the midsize SUV rankings. The first visible sign would be an automaker stating how a three-row model will be classified for 2030, or adding clearance, payload or towing capability to keep one on the truck side.
